Mtumbuka Tipped to Win Rumphi Central By-Election, New Study Shows

Rumphi, Malawi — A new independent study has shown that Mathews Mtumbuka is the most favoured candidate to win the forthcoming Rumphi Central by-election, following the appointment of Enock Chihana as the country’s Second Vice President.

The study, conducted between 8 and 28 October across all 32 polling stations in the constituency, indicates that Mtumbuka commands a comfortable 61 percent support, compared to 39 percent for his closest rival, Walita Moya Mkandawire.

According to the findings, Mkandawire leads in only eight polling stations — including Chandamale, Chirambo and Chikwawa — areas he frequently visits and identifies as his home base. Mtumbuka, meanwhile, dominates in 24 polling stations across all geographical zones of the constituency.

The results are consistent with the 16 September parliamentary election, where Mtumbuka, representing the UTM Party, garnered 3,450 votes against Mkandawire’s 2,797. When compared directly between the two, Mtumbuka had about 55 percent of the vote, a lead that has since widened according to the latest data.

Analysts suggest that Mtumbuka’s growing popularity stems from his reputation for commitment to development initiatives, political consistency, and a down-to-earth personality.

In contrast, some respondents said Mkandawire’s support base has been affected by controversy surrounding his claims of owning ADMARC and Rumphi FM — entities that are publicly and community owned.

The researchers noted that the study focused on the two leading candidates out of the eight who contested the September election, excluding Chihana, whose elevation to the vice presidency triggered the by-election.

The findings also raise concerns about misinformation in rural areas, with civic education practitioners urged to help voters make informed electoral choices.