South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa leading Ukraine peace mission
The African leaders travelled to Ukraine by train from Poland
Seven African leaders are travelling to Ukraine and Russia on a peace mission, hoping to bring the war there closer to an end.
The delegation from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda is meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday and President Vladimir Putin on Saturday.
But the timing of the visit seems off. It comes just as Kyiv is launching its much-vaunted counter-offensive.
So, what can this mission actually achieve?
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa offered no timeline or proposals when he made the announcement last month, joining a crowded field of would-be peacemakers that includes China, Turkey and the Pope.
“What is the strategic thrust of this intervention?” asks Kingsley Makhubela, a South African risk analyst and former diplomat. “It’s not clear. Is this a photo op by African heads of state?”
The mission is an unusual burst of activism given Africa’s largely hands-off approach to a conflict that many here see primarily as a confrontation between Russia and the West.
It is also a rare attempt at diplomatic intervention outside the continent – a “welcome development” given Africa’s growing demand to have a bigger voice at the UN and other international organisations, says Murithi Mutiga, Africa director at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank.
The man who has prepared the ground, Jean-Yves Ollivier, has talked about modest goals.
He heads a UK-based organization known as the Brazzaville Foundation, which focuses primarily on peace and development initiatives in Africa.
Ollivier has stopped commenting publicly about the trip since the dates became official. But in previously published interviews he has laid out his approach.
He said the aim was to start talking rather than to resolve the conflict, to begin a dialogue on issues that do not directly affect the military situation and build from there.
One of them is a potential swap of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war.
The other is to try and find solutions to issues that matter to Africa, like grain and fertilizer.
The war has severely restricted the export of grain from Ukraine and fertilizers from Russia, intensifying global food insecurity. Africa, which depends on imports of both, has suffered the most.
Ollivier said the African leaders would seek to persuade the Russians to extend the fragile agreement that allows Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea.
And it will urge Kyiv to help find ways to ease restrictions on the export of Russian fertilizers currently being held up in ports.
There are indications, however, that the leaders “seek to offer a more substantive deal between the two sides”, says Mutiga.
US pressure on South Africa
The delegation has been designed for breadth and balance: five presidents and Uganda’s representative, standing in for President Yoweri Museveni who is recovering from Covid-19.
They come from different parts of Africa and have different views on the conflict.
South Africa and Uganda are seen as leaning towards Russia, while Zambia and Comoros are closer to the West. Egypt, Senegal and Congo-Brazzaville have remained largely neutral.
But recent developments in South Africa appear to be influencing the venture.
Ramaphosa’s government has come under growing pressure from the US because of its alleged support for Russia’s war. This centres on claims of an arms shipment to Moscow, which South Africa has denied.
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